BOSTON — The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence could ultimately support demand for U.S. office space rather than significantly reduce it, according to a new analysis from commercial real estate services firm CBRE.
The report argues that AI is more likely to change the composition of the office workforce than eliminate large numbers of office-based jobs. CBRE’s analysis found that about 5% of U.S. office-using jobs are highly vulnerable to disruption from AI, while 18% are highly adaptable to the technology and could endure or expand as AI becomes more widely adopted.
The remaining 77% fall between those two categories, meaning they are likely to experience changes from AI without facing what CBRE considers significant disruption.
The findings have implications for an office market that has been dealing with elevated vacancy rates and changing workplace patterns since the pandemic. CBRE’s analysis suggests that the types of jobs most vulnerable to AI may also be less dependent on traditional office settings, while many occupations expected to benefit from AI involve collaboration that is more commonly associated with workplaces.
Jobs such as payroll and timekeeping clerks and tax collectors and revenue agents are among those CBRE identifies as more vulnerable to AI disruption. By contrast, financial and investment analysts, computer network architects and AI engineers are among the occupations the company says are more likely to be supported by the technology.
“History has shown that technological advancements often lead to more jobs rather than fewer,” John Morris, CBRE’s Group President of Advisory Leasing, said in a statement.
Morris pointed to the growth of office-using employment following the introduction of the internet and smartphones as historical examples. CBRE’s analysis concludes that AI could produce a similar effect, although the company’s current forecast uses more conservative job-growth assumptions than those associated with previous technological shifts.
Office Vacancy Could Decline
CBRE’s baseline forecast calls for U.S. office vacancy to fall to 14.5% by 2031, from 18.3% in 2026.
The forecast assumes modest net job growth over the next five years, along with an improving labor market, continued strength in top-tier office buildings, improving sentiment among office occupiers and limited new office construction.
Even under a downside scenario in which AI causes greater employment disruption than expected, CBRE said the impact on office vacancy would be relatively limited compared with current levels.
The company estimates that the office-using workforce will expand at an average annual rate of 0.9% over the next five years, compared with 0.6% annual growth for the broader U.S. job market. Some of that office employment growth is expected to come from companies operating in the AI sector.
The analysis comes as the commercial real estate industry continues to assess how technological changes will affect demand for office space. AI companies themselves have become an important source of office demand in major employment centers, while businesses across other industries are incorporating AI into existing operations.
AI Could Reshape, Rather Than Eliminate, Office Work
CBRE based its assessment of AI exposure on a job-vulnerability index developed by AI-industry researchers Sam Manning and Tomás Aguirre. The index was applied to a range of U.S. office-job classifications to assess which occupations could face disruption, adaptation or support from AI.
The distinction between job elimination and job transformation is central to CBRE’s argument. As companies introduce AI tools, some routine administrative functions may require fewer workers, while other positions may become more productive or expand as employees use AI to handle portions of their work.
CBRE also cited U.S. Census Bureau data showing an increase in new business applications since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. According to the report, annual business applications increased from just over 400,000 in 2022 to more than 500,000 in 2025.
For the office market, the geographic concentration of AI-related employment could be particularly important. Technology and AI companies tend to cluster in established business and innovation centers, potentially increasing competition for high-quality office space in those markets.
“Job growth supported by the expansion of the AI sector means that available prime office space will be tougher to come by in the years ahead,” Mike Watts, CBRE Americas President of Office Investor Leasing, said in a statement.
Watts said that when large blocks of space are unavailable in the highest-quality buildings, companies looking to relocate could begin considering properties one tier below the prime segment.
A Potential Shift in Office Demand
The CBRE analysis arrives as landlords and employers continue to navigate the longer-term effects of hybrid work. While remote and hybrid arrangements have reduced demand for some traditional office space, companies in a range of industries have also placed greater emphasis on office environments designed around collaboration, technology and employee interaction.
The report suggests that AI could add another layer to that transformation. Rather than simply reducing the number of people working in offices, the technology could alter which occupations occupy those spaces and increase demand for workplaces serving industries experiencing AI-related growth.
CBRE’s projections remain forecasts rather than guarantees, and the company acknowledges that the pace and impact of AI adoption could differ from its assumptions. Still, the analysis points to a potential path in which technological disruption changes the U.S. office market without producing the large-scale decline in office employment that some scenarios have anticipated.
For landlords, developers and investors, the implications could extend beyond the overall amount of office space required. The location, quality and configuration of that space may become increasingly important as businesses compete for workers and as AI-related industries expand.
